On September 24, Germans vote to elect their Bundestag, the lower house of parliament.Opinion polls in Germany indicate that Angela Merkel will be re-elected as the Chancellor but will that be enough to ensure after-election political stability?For the first time in 27 years, six parties may enter the parliament, resulting in a rather divided parliament. The CDU/CSU coalition is unlikely to gain majority. The far-right party(AfD )is expected to win few seats but the other parties...
Despite relatively weak economic data releases out of the US on Thursday that have likely helped to decrease the already low probability of a Fed rate hike next week, the effect on the US dollar was rather muted, as much of the consistently low September rate hike expectations may have already been priced-in. Nonetheless, there was some drag on the US dollar, along with a moderate rebound for heavily-pressured crude oil prices that gave the oil-correlated Canadian dollar a bit of a boost.As a...
It may not be the end of the world for longs, but the USDJPY has moved to the 100 hour MA (blue line) and 50% retracement (we actually dipped below each but the buyers are trying to stall the decline but need another shove higher).If they get it (the shove higher that is), the 102.51 will be the target to get back above to take some of the pressure off the selling. If they can't hold the line, look for more selling.ning USD exchange rates after claiming; ‘Foreign consumption...
The 38.2-50% of that last trend leg lower comes between 1.3205-17 (see chart below). If the low is in place, that area should hold. It may not mean we go and take out the lows next - although it could. It just keeps the sellers in control. It also says to me that the buyers are not taking back control as well. If the buyers cannot do the minimum - get above the midpoint of the last trend move lower - they are not taking control.Now, if the price moves above the 50%, it says that...
Back to our trading week now. We had interesting moves but the market remained inside the trading ranges and the mover of the week was the Gbp/Jpy with a loss of 206 pips.The USD got hit on Tuesday because of a worst than expected non-manufacturing PMI. Mrs Yellen said she will pay attention to US economy before deciding for an interest rate increase on September 21st. She certainly has already a good idea and will not base her decision on the remaining 2-3 reports, but those reports offer traders...
The EURUSD did a big lap in trading yesterday with the price moving sharply higher and then sharply lower. The low yesterday bottomed right at support against the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at 1.1239. The area also corresponded with swing lows from August (between 1.1239-45).Today the price has broken below the area as traders push the dollar higher (the EURUSD lower). Contributing to the bearishness technically, is the fact that earlier today, the 50% of the move down yesterday held resistance....
Talking Points:GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Near-term price action continues moving higher in a bullish manner. While price action remains below the longer-term support value of 1.3500, the pair could pose continued bullish price action as additional rate-cut bets for the U.K. unwind as inflationary pressure has begun to show.We have seen the potential for the British Pound to pose an extended top-side run after the Bank of England’s post-Brexit maneuvering drove the Sterling lower;...
The Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected. However, they expressed worries about the economy going forward.While the team led by Poloz do expect a rebound in H2 (the economy squeezed by an annualized 1.6% in Q2 2016), they are concerned. Compared with their July decision, they see lower forecasts, partially due to the weak first half.Also on their mandate, inflation, they see some tilt to the downside. Deflation is a global problem, even in Canada, where...
Speculation is mounting regarding some deal on cutting or freezing oil production. OPEC and perhaps non-OPEC members are set to meet later this month, and some believe that maybe, this time, they will reach an agreement.WTI Crude oil is making an impressive recovery from the lows, topping $46. Canada, which exports oil, sees its currency recover as well. USD/CAD is now trading at 1.2920, just above the support line of 1.2910.The latest speculation regarding a move to lift oil prices comes...
Today's Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast and Forex PredictionsThe Euro to Dollar exchange rate today: 1 EUR = 1.11548 USD. The Euro to Pound exchange rate today: 1 EUR = 0.83881 GBP. The US Dollar to Euro rate today: 0.89648The expectations of any rate hike by the US Fed in September is more or less out of the window following the August jobs report.Similarly, the market believes that the European Central Bank will also refrain from any fresh policy measures in their...
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